I recently read the book "Tokyo in 2030.


Today I would like to introduce you to a book.

Masashi Kawai and Tomohiro Makino, authors of "Tokyo in 2030.

Being based in Kyoto, I wondered if it would make sense for me to know the future of Tokyo. However, I read this book because I thought that knowing Tokyo would lead to knowing Japan.As written on the cover, the book describes the grim future in easy-to-understand categories (work, family, city, home, lifestyle, and retirement).

Now, let me introduce the contents of the book.

  • The population has continued to be concentrated in Tokyo even as the population began to decline, so that Tokyo now attracts 11.1% of the total population and accounts for 19.5% of the nation's gross metropolitan product (FY 2018). Japanese companies have succeeded in creating an "economy of agglomeration" in Tokyo that continues to attract people, goods, and money.
  • In the Joto district to the east of Tokyo Station, 700,000 tsubo of new office floor space will be created over the next three years. This is not in anticipation of the DX trend, i.e., the decline in demand for office space in Tokyo. (This is an "economy of agglomeration" based on the premise that the population will continue to grow as usual.
  • As telework becomes more prevalent, opportunities for face-to-face discussions and brainstorming sessions will become more important. (This will be an opportunity that is more valuable than ever.
  • Tokyo is expected to see a rapid increase in the number of singles in the future. When we speak of singles, we may imagine young people living in one-room apartments after entering college or getting a job, but the singles of 2030 will be elderly people living alone. These are those who have aged in Tokyo and those who have been called in from rural areas, as mentioned above.
  • The town that will survive in the future will not be one that is convenient to the city center for commuting, or one that still has nature to heal, but one that has what functions implemented in the town. Specifically, it is about attracting specific services to the city, such as excellent medical care that is second to none, excellent financial functions that allow people to live without cash, a well-developed sharing economy, and so on.
  • As Japan continues on its path toward an aging society, what is critically lacking is a place for adults to socialize. While European countries have a culture of dressing up in tuxedos and dresses and going to the opera or casinos in the evening, there are only a few places in Tokyo where middle-aged couples can dress up after work.
  • Department stores will be transformed into places that provide a comfortable living atmosphere. It is a place that proposes "how about this kind of living" and is a staging device. (omission) They will teach us new scenes of life that we have not experienced or noticed before, and we will discover our own attractiveness. I believe that department stores that advocate such lifestyle production will survive.
  • When looking ahead to Tokyo in 2030, one of the issues of concern is the deterioration of public safety.
  • It is estimated that by the late 2030s, one in three houses will be vacant nationwide.
  • The Tokyo Metropolitan Government estimates that there will be a shortage of about 35,000 nursing care workers alone in FY2025. If this trend continues, the shortage will further increase in FY2030.
  • It is predicted that by around 2030 there will be 1.25 million care refugees in the Tokyo area alone.
  • In 2030, more people will be thinking about how to live their retirement in their own way. 2030's elderly generation is not workaholic, and they are more likely to enjoy their hobbies individually and with like-minded friends than in groups. They have a number of ways to stay connected away from work. I believe that the value of living life without regrets will expand, especially among those who have a certain amount of time to live, and while they are still healthy, they will devote themselves to hobbies and activities they left behind when they were young. In addition, listening to this generation, I get the feeling that more and more people are thinking, "There is no point in living too long." The aging society of the 2030s may well see the blossoming of a unique otaku culture that differs from that of today's older as well as younger generations.
  • Haste makes waste. How far can we go to destroy "old Japan," "old Tokyo," and "outdated success stories" while there is still some time and options left in this country? That is where the game is going to be played.


That is all.

After reading the book, I thought that all the contents were not irrelevant to me, a 40-something living in KyotoHowever, I am basically an optimist, so even if the future turns out to be as grim as this book suggests, I intend to live a carefree life.

This is a book that I hope people of all ages will read with excitement.


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